The US cities where home values are most likely to plummet in a recession


JORDAN HART, SEPTEMBER 17, 2022

A new report reveals which US cities would be most vulnerable to housing-market declines in an economic downturn.

On Wednesday, real estate data company, ATTOM Data Solutions, published its Special Housing Risk Report for the second quarter of 2022.

The report listed nearly 600 US counties vulnerable to value decline, based on “home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment,” the report says.

According to the report, counties among the top 50 most vulnerable include six aroun the Chicago metropolitan area, 13 throughout California, nine around New York City, and three in the Philadelphia area.

Here are some of ATTOM’s most at-risk counties near metropolitan areas:
  • Kings County, NY (Brooklyn)
  • Richmond County, NY (Staten Island)
  • Philadelphia County, PA (Philadelphia)
  • Camden and Gloucester Counties, NJ (Philadelphia)
  • Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry, and Will Counties, IL (Chicago)
  • Lake County, IN (Chicago)
  • Solano County, CA (Sacramento)
  • Fresno, Kings, and Madera Counties, CA (Fresno)
  • Kern County, CA (Bakersfield)
  • San Bernardino County, CA (San Bernardino)

The rest of the list’s top 50 are scattered across the US, according to ATTOM.

“The Federal Reserve has promised to be as aggressive as it needs to be in order to get inflation under control, even if its actions lead to a recession,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM.

“Given how little progress has been made reducing inflation so far, the Fed’s actions seem more and more likely to drive the economy into a recession, and some housing markets are going to be more vulnerable than others if that happens,” he added.